Assessments

All-Source Analysis

Our teams of subject matter experts conduct international assessments (IA), focusing on all-source intelligence analysis of foreign nuclear security threats. This cornerstone program analyzes nuclear weapons, weaponization, nuclear fuel cycles, proliferation and terrorist interests in weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and cyber. Additionally, it provides critical support for U.S. missile defense through comprehensive global proliferation analysis.

The Science and Technology Assessments (STA) team performs all-source analysis of scientific and technical developments across various domains including space and cyber. Their work encompasses emerging technologies, chemical and biological threats, WMD proliferation networks and cyber infrastructure systems.

Nonproliferation and Arms Control (NPAC) assessments evaluate dual-use trade-control activities for the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), ensuring that technology transfers do not facilitate WMD proliferation. NPAC also employs all-source analysis to support U.S. licensing processes and nonproliferation efforts.

International Assessments

Our teams of experts in international assessments (IA), our cornerstone legacy program, are responsible for conducting all-source intelligence analysis on foreign nuclear threats including nuclear weapons analysis, weaponization, nuclear fuel-cycle analysis and activities, nuclear proliferation, over-the-horizon nuclear weapon analysis, terrorist WMD interest, opportunities and capabilities, global proliferation analysis and support to U.S. missile defense.

Foreign Nuclear Weapon Intelligence Initiative

The Foreign Nuclear Weapons Intelligence Initiative (FNWII) is a joint Intelligence Community and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) program for ensuring that the NNSA Tri-Labs (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos and Sandia National Laboratories) maintain a robust foreign nuclear weapons analysis capability and that NNSA’s premier science and technology are brought to bear in intelligence assessments of foreign nuclear weapons analysis capabilities.

International Assessments Counterterrorism Report

In 2020, the International Assessments Counterterrorism team published a report detailing Lebanese Hezbollah’s ability to adjust battlefield tactics to respond to specific objectives, including gradually incorporating conventional military tactics into its operations when its traditional guerilla-style methods proved insufficient. The study covers observations over two decades, beginning in 2000, and draws extensively from the 33-day war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. The study also includes tactics and weapons adjustments Hezbollah made during major battlefield operations, rationales that may impact Hezbollah’s decision-making in future conflicts and the importance of Iranian assistance to its battlefield proficiency.

Evaluating Technological Ambitions

In 2020, the Science and Technology Assessments Emerging Technology team published a study detailing China’s ambitions to become a global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) chip technology within a decade. The report evaluated China’s role in the AI chip market, compared Chinese chip performance across several metrics and estimated trendlines indicating the possible pace of progress. The trendlines cover emerging processor architectures, such as neuromorphic processors, and nascent application areas, such as use in challenging space environments. Given the increased attention AI has received in the intervening years, particularly as it relates to China’s ambitions, this report continues to be a valuable resource for those looking deeply at the implications of semiconductors and AI.

Surveying Hypersonic Technologies

An increasing number of countries appear interested in hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCM), prompting the need to understand how these systems are developed, constructed and tested. There are several challenges associated with fielding hypersonics, and understanding a country’s ability to address these challenges will likely contribute to our understanding of its ability to field these systems.

In 2020, the Science and Technology Assessments Missile and Space team published a report surveying hypersonic missiles and associated technology, including hypersonic boost glide vehicles including HGVs, which lack propulsion and HCMs which are propulsion powered.

Nonproliferation & Arms Control

The Nonproliferation and Arms Control (NPAC) Team examines dual-use trade control activities on behalf of the the DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). LLNL supports NNSA’s role in ensuring domestic and foreign technology transfer does not contribute to the proliferation of WMDs.

NPAC employs all-source analysis in support of the US government’s licensing process for dual-use U.S. technology transfer, WMD-related technology interdiction, the nonproliferation regime and additional nonproliferation assessments.

Intelligence

All-Source Analysis

International Assessments

Foreign Nuclear Weapon Intelligence Initiative

International Assessments Counterterrorism Report

Science & Technology Assessments

Evaluating Technological Ambitions

Surveying Hypersonic Technologies

Data-driven, realistic scenarios

Nonproliferation & Arms Control

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