Defense

Decision Support

Applying Computational Planning

One of the most important unsolved problems in artificial intelligence (AI) is how to plan for the future given incomplete information about the present. Doing so requires an ability to adapt quickly to changing circumstances beyond the range of eventualities identified in past training data. A novel Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL) computational method is critical for the Department of Defense when they deploy AI-enhanced capabilities in real-world operations. It’s in these operations that new variables are created at an exponential rate in real-time, making it difficult for traditional AI to keep pace.

Another challenge faced by AI is how to synthesize and contextualize data as it’s acquired and then taking action in new, unforseen scenarios. Current Large Language Model (LLM) approaches cannot do this because they require vast training data and expensive offline computing resources.

A recent LLNL machine-learning breakthrough identified new ways to solve reinforcement-learning problems by casting them as components of completely integrable dynamical systems. This approach enables efficient solutions through parallel computations.

Additional advances in probabilistic machine learning and high-throughput computing methods also provide decision-support solutions for problems under unique national security mission constraints. Decision superiority researchers at LLNL — including data scientists, statisticians, physicists and mathematicians — work with the Global Security Directorate to apply these innovations by partnering with experts across the Lab and other national laboratories in defense-systems modeling and simulations.

Three soldiers standing in front of large computer monitors

Decision superiority applications can include:

  • Predictive analytics and dynamic national-security scenarios supported by near-real-time data synthesis tools that ingest open-source data and generate models of operational environments
  • Classified high-performance computing infrastructure tailored to data analysis and machine learning supports growing defense program activities
  • Modeling at the strategic decision-making level helps understand key drivers of integrated deterrence as Laboratory and national leaders consider technology implications under evolving national policy frameworks. The science of dynamical systems underpinning LLNL’s novel decision superiority capabilities helps connect Laboratory competencies and programs in applied mathematics and physics.

Program Highlights

Illustration of a virtual globe illuminated by networks highlighting the fusion of internet science and global business

Geospatial Information System for Knowledge and Rapid Decisions (GISKARD) — real-time data integration

GISKARD, a data-driven dynamic environment generator, is able to locate, retrieve and make use of a wide variety of geospatial datasets to synthesize a unified view of the world. This computer can understand and quickly replicate analytics utilizing a digital twin. To do this with low latency, such that the outputs are useful to decision-support tools, GISKARD leverages LLNL’s high-performance computing capabilities. The mission space where this can be applied is practically limitless but would include optimal decision making for military commanders, search-and-rescue operations and, eventually, strategic policy makers; more or less any use case where the decision is informed by a geographical and relational context.


Statistician Amanda Muyskens, PhD, describes MuyGPyS, her team’s innovative and computationally efficient Gaussian Process hyperparameter estimation method for large data.

MuyGPyS: Interpretable AI with (re-)training in near-real-time

MuyGPyS is a novel state-of-the-art scalable Gaussian Process (GP) hyperparameter estimation method developed by LLNL. This methodology allows GP models to be applied to larger and more complex datasets than previously possible and challenges the supremacy of neural networks for lab applications. GPs give uncertainty quantification on predictions so we can trust model predictions, interpret results and hard-code known physics into the model naturally and efficiently.

This new estimation methodology is superior in several ways:

  • Faster to train than neural networks (due to a much smaller number of parameters)
  • More accurate than neural networks for noisy, sparse or incomplete data
  • Native and meaningful uncertainty quantification to aid interpretability
  • Potential for robustness against adversarial attacks targets at neural networks
  • Based on linear algebra operations that are already tuned for conventional HPC
  • Traditional HPC parallelism enabled using bespoke LLNL
  • Open-source code
Parallel Agent Dynamical Learning

Parallel Agent Dynamical Learning (PADL) — Scalable online planning

LLNL’s Parallel Agent Dynamical Learning (PADL) code applies novel algorithms to scalable real-time training of AI agents using the digital environment as well as a learned component for an AI.

PADL uses the digital environment and adds a learned component for an AI agent to optimally achieve a specified objective, such as engagement windows, paths or operational initiatives.

seldon

SELDON: Strategic Escalation Ladder Dominance for N-Players

The Strategic Escalation Ladder Dominance for N-Players (SELDON) is a tool for forecasting and shaping high-level strategic competition. It incorporates state-of-the-art analytical modeling of the joint political, economic, military and perceptual aspects of integrated deterrence.

Model solution times are dramatically accelerated by a unique LLNL-developed algorithm for the rapid solution of Bayesian games with an arbitrary number of players. This in turn enables a rapid response to changing circumstances and opens the door to comprehensive studies of the impact of strategic factors and their interactions.

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